{"id":124376,"date":"2026-03-12T14:25:14","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T14:25:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pressactu.com\/?p=124376"},"modified":"2026-03-12T14:25:14","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T14:25:14","slug":"bernard-hourcade-geographe-la-republique-islamique-diran-telle-que-nous-lavons-connue-pendant-pres-dun-demi-siecle-ne-survivra-pas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pressactu.com\/?p=124376","title":{"rendered":"Bernard Hourcade, g\u00e9ographe\u00a0: \u00ab\u00a0La R\u00e9publique islamique d\u2019Iran telle que nous l\u2019avons connue pendant pr\u00e8s d\u2019un demi-si\u00e8cle ne survivra pas\u00a0\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"<div auto_robot_readability=\"35.710431654676\">\n                          <!-- partials\/article\/hook_media--standard.volt --><\/p>\n<figure class=\"hook-media--standard \" auto_robot_readability=\"-21.5\">\n    <picture class=\"hook-media_picture pb-8\"><source media=\"(max-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/focus.nouvelobs.com\/2026\/03\/10\/0\/0\/6000\/4000\/375\/250\/75\/0\/ad6c793_ftp-1-qv7gzk5fkwhz-afp-a2mk6yg.jpg 1x,https:\/\/focus.nouvelobs.com\/2026\/03\/10\/0\/0\/6000\/4000\/750\/500\/50\/0\/ad6c793_ftp-1-qv7gzk5fkwhz-afp-a2mk6yg.jpg 2x\" width=\"375\" height=\"250\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"mx-auto\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%27http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%27%20fill%3D%22%23e4e4e4%22%20viewBox%3D%270%200%20510%20340%27%20width%3D%22510%22%20height%3D%22340%22%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%27M0%200h510v340H0z%27%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E\" srcset=\"https:\/\/focus.nouvelobs.com\/2026\/03\/10\/0\/0\/6000\/4000\/510\/340\/75\/0\/ad6c793_ftp-1-qv7gzk5fkwhz-afp-a2mk6yg.jpg 1x,https:\/\/focus.nouvelobs.com\/2026\/03\/10\/0\/0\/6000\/4000\/1020\/680\/50\/0\/ad6c793_ftp-1-qv7gzk5fkwhz-afp-a2mk6yg.jpg 2x\" loading=\"eager\" width=\"510\" height=\"340\" data-oncrawl-image-size=\"510x340\" alt=\"Un panneau repr\u00e9sentant les guides supr\u00eames de la R\u00e9publique islamique depuis 1979\u00a0(Ruhollah Khomeini, Ali Khamenei et Mojtaba Khamenei) dans le centre de T\u00e9h\u00e9ran, le 10\u00a0mars 2026, au onzi\u00e8me jour de l\u2019offensive isra\u00e9lo-am\u00e9ricaine.\"\/>      <\/source><\/picture><figcaption class=\"hook-media_figcaption\" auto_robot_readability=\"-18\">\n<p class=\"latino-100m text-grey-600\">\n            Un panneau repr\u00e9sentant les guides supr\u00eames de la R\u00e9publique islamique depuis 1979\u00a0(Ruhollah Khomeini, Ali Khamenei et Mojtaba Khamenei) dans le centre de T\u00e9h\u00e9ran, le 10\u00a0mars 2026, au onzi\u00e8me jour de l\u2019offensive isra\u00e9lo-am\u00e9ricaine.\u00a0<span class=\"text-grey-600 ms-4\">AFP<\/span>        <\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>            <!-- partials\/article\/actions\/toolbar --><\/p>\n<div class=\"article__share d-flex align-items-center py-24 border-bottom  mb-32\" style=\"--border-color:#D9D9D9;\">\n<div class=\"d-flex 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btn--small btn--conversion-secondary\" style=\"--btn-color:#FFF;--btn-color-hover:#FFF;--btn-bg:#522DF7;--btn-bg-hover:#522DF7;--btn-bg-focus:#522DF7;--btn-border-color:#522DF7;\"><br \/>\n      S\u2019abonner pour lire    <\/span><\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>            <!-- partials\/article\/contextual_blocks.volt --><\/p>\n<p class=\"latino-500b text-grey-600\">Pour aller plus loin<\/p>\n<p>        <!-- partials\/article\/node.volt --><br \/>\n<!-- partials\/article\/node_text.volt --><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"node__question antonia-900c text-grey-800 pb-8 pb-md-16\">\nSur une \u00e9chelle de 1\u00a0\u00e0 10, quelle est aujourd\u2019hui la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019une chute du r\u00e9gime iranien\u00a0?<\/h2>\n<p>            <!-- partials\/article\/node.volt --><br \/>\n<!-- partials\/article\/node_text.volt --><\/p>\n<p class=\"node__paragraphe antonia-750r text-grey-800 pb-8\">\n<strong>Bernard Hourcade<\/strong> A terme, elle est de 10. La R\u00e9publique islamique telle que nous l\u2019avons connue pendant pr\u00e8s d\u2019un demi-si\u00e8cle ne survivra pas. La question n\u2019est pas de savoir si le syst\u00e8me va \u00e9voluer, mais \u00e0 quel rythme, \u00e0 quel niveau de profondeur et selon quelles modalit\u00e9s. Il faut se garder de l\u2019\u2026<\/p>\n<p>            <!-- app\/web\/views\/partials\/walls\/paywall-web.volt --><\/p>\n<div class=\"paywall2025 d-flex flex-column mb-8 flash-offer\" auto_robot_readability=\"7\">\n<div class=\"oreillette d-flex justify-content-center align-items-center py-4 rounded-top-15\" auto_robot_readability=\"32\">\n<p class=\"latino-100m text-blue-400\">Article r\u00e9serv\u00e9 aux abonn\u00e9s.<\/p>\n<p>              <span class=\"latino-100m ps-8 text-decoration-underline text-blue-400\" style=\"cursor: pointer;\" data-piano=\"paywall_Municipales26_anonymes,,,se_connecter,navigation\" data-urlencode=\"aHR0cHM6Ly9zZWMubm91dmVsb2JzLmNvbS9zZnVzZXIvY29ubmV4aW9uP3JlZGlyZWN0aW9uVXJsPWh0dHBzJTNBJTJGJTJGd3d3Lm5vdXZlbG9icy5jb20lMkZtb25kZSUyRjIwMjYwMzExLk9CUzExMzA4OSUyRmJlcm5hcmQtaG91cmNhZGUtZ2VvZ3JhcGhlLWxhLXJlcHVibGlxdWUtaXNsYW1pcXVlLWQtaXJhbi10ZWxsZS1xdWUtbm91cy1sLWF2b25zLWNvbm51ZS1wZW5kYW50LXByZXMtZC11bi1kZW1pLXNpZWNsZS1uZS1zdXJ2aXZyYS1wYXMuaHRtbA==\"><br \/>\n        Se connecter      <\/span>\n      <\/div>\n<div class=\"paywall-body d-flex flex-column flex-grow-1 justify-content-center p-8 p-md-16 rounded-bottom-15\" auto_robot_readability=\"32\">\n<p class=\"title text-center antonia-1850c\" style=\"margin-bottom:4px;\">Offre sp\u00e9ciale<\/p>\n<p class=\"description pb-8 pb-md-16 antonia-800c text-center\">Tous nos contenus exclusifs en acc\u00e8s illimit\u00e9<\/p>\n<div class=\"d-flex flex-wrap flex-column column-gap-16 justify-content-center align-items-center\">\n<div class=\"actions d-flex flex-column flex-md-row gap-8 gap-md-16 justify-content-center align-items-center w-100 pb-8 pb-md-16\">\n                  <span class=\"latino-100b latino-lg-300b btn btn--large btn--conversion-primary main-cta\" style=\"line-height:1;text-align:center!important;\" onclick=\"return window.pa.sendEvent('self_promotion.click', {&#10; 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